Local real estate markets have felt surprisingly busy over the past month. November is usually when things start to slow down for the holiday season, but this year has seemed different. After a slow fall, business actually seems to be picking up recently.
Are the markets really busier than normal for this time of year? The best way to investigate this question is to look at the number of contracts written by month. Let’s compare to the average market activity of pre-financial crisis years (2001 through 2006) to hopefully get “normal” seasonality. The following data comes from the CT Multiple Listing Service, which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
So … what do we see in the data?
1. The market has been consistently slow since the tax credit. We just can’t get away from the tax credit can we? Contracts had to be signed by the end of April 2010, which shows up loud and clear on the chart. Moving on…
2. October was not busier than “normal” in terms of the number of deals. The number of contracts written was less than the baseline years, though we have been closing the gap.
3. However, October was busier versus previous months than typical years. Rather than falling off since the peak of the activity in May, the number of deals has been trending upwards since May in 2010. We’re gradually returning to traditional seasonality.
4. We still see peaks and valleys in the second half of the year. Fewer deals seem to happen in July and September, showing up as dips in the trend line. More deals seem to happen in August and October, showing up as peaks in the trend line.
It looks like our perceptions are not supported by any data; the market really isn’t busier in any measurable way. That’s why we pull the stats, to make sure we’re not extrapolating our experiences and perceptions to the overall market. In this case it looks like our business is simply trending differently than other agents.
Not that we’ve complaining … we like helping people with their real estate needs!