November Contracts: A Gradual Winter Slowdown

November contracts came in at 482 deals for the month, which shows a reasonable and normal decline as we head into the colder months and the holiday season.

Hartford County Single Family Contracts in November 2012

Comparing this November to last year is misleading. The data shows us more than 40% ahead of November 2011, which is much higher than the 25% year-over-year bump that we have been reporting in past months. But last year there was a disruption in the market than pushed the November number lower than it otherwise would have been.

Hartford County Single Family Contracts in November 2012 by TownYou may recall that we had a large Halloween snowstorm last year that knocked out power for much of Hartford County for about a week. The storm basically shut down the real estate market for 7 to 10 days, which had a meaningful impact on the number of sales.

We find the falling inventory levels much more interesting than the year over year change in deal count. Our analysis shows it at 5.1 months, down from 5.7 months in the October report. There are four towns (Berlin, Newington, West Hartford, Wethersfield) that have inventory of less than four months – not a lot of options for buyers. Another eight towns have fewer than five months of inventory.

Buyers continue put homes under contract at a brisk pace. But new listings haven’t been keeping up in recent months. It makes us wonder how the market will progress over the winter. If buyers continue to snap up homes, inventory levels will continue to be pushed lower in the coming months.

What will this mean for the spring market?