2017 Hartford County Single-Family Sales Data

Hartford County finished 2017 with a slight increase in the number of single-family home sales compared to 2016. The total in the Connecticut MLS database as of 1/4/2018 was 8,649, or 1.6% higher than the previous year. Although there wasn’t significant growth in market activity, the deal total for the year remained close to the 2005 peak, signifying strong overall demand.

2018-01-07 Hartford County Single Family Sales

Looking at the trend in pricing, the chart below shows that both the average and median sales price fell in 2017 compared to 2016. There has been little progress in pricing for years, with both metrics just below the 2009 result, and well off the 2007 peak.

2018-01-07 Hartford County Single Family Prices

Pricing results are not uniformly bad, despite the middling numbers, but it is difficult to see the bright spots when reducing the entire market to a single data point. Additionally, the decrease in the average and median prices is a bit misleading, as will be discussed below.

Lower price bands showed a strong increase in activity over the past few years. Most of the housing stock in the region is worth between $100,000 and $300,000. In 2017 those deals represented nearly 65% of all sales. Those are the price bands that experienced consistent buyer interest and rising prices. The upper end of the market continues to struggle with low demand and downward pressure on prices.

2018-01-07 Hartford County Single Family Sales by Price Band

Distressed sales are a meaningful part of the Greater Hartford market. The percentage of single-family homes sales that were either foreclosures (bank owned) or short-sales (seller owed more than mortgage) remained steady at just over 13%. Most of the deals that closed for less than $100k were distressed (456 out of 652, or 70%), though more than half of the distressed deals closed for more than $100k.

Differences in buyer demand at the various price points have been evident for years. 2017 continued the trend of strength at the low end and weakness at the high end.

It appears that average and median prices decreased because of how those numbers are calculated rather than because of buyers bidding less. In 2017 the number of buyers for low end homes increased versus 2016, while the number of buyers for high end homes decreased. The mix of sold homes changed. Therefore, when the average and median prices were calculated, the mix of sales ($200,000 deals vs $500,000 deals) forced the overall average and median prices down.

Prices fell for technical reasons, not because individual homes are necessarily worth less than they were last year (though some are worth less). The big picture takeaway is that headline numbers like median sales price can’t always be trusted. It is important to get into the numbers to understand the details.

We’re looking forward to seeing what 2018 brings. As always, we are happy to answer questions for folks who would like more information.

2016 Single-Family Sales by Town

The other day I posted the County level stats for sales activity and pricing. The big picture view gives a good sense of high level trends, but doesn’t provide much insight into the markets of individual towns. The reality of Greater Hartford real estate is that each town is its own market, and there can be very different dynamics at play.

Here is a summary chart showing the activity and price changes in each of Hartford County’s towns. This continues to be for single-family homes, which represent the majority of the housing stock in most towns.

2017-01-06 Hartford County Single Family Sales in 2016 by Town

How did your town do last year? If you’re interested, send me a quick note at KyleB@KyleB-RE.com and I can send you our town report to get deeper into the data.

2016 Hartford County Single-Family Sales Data

2016 was another good year for Hartford County real estate. It was the second year in a row that showed growth in the number of closed deals. The total number of single-family sales recorded in the Connecticut Multiple Listings Service (CTMLS) database was 8,515 (as of 1/6/2017).

2017-01-06 Hartford County Single Family Sales

The number of closed sales increased by 10.6% over the 2015 total. As the above chart shows, the market has returned to the activity levels seen in the early 2000s. Last year’s sales total was only about 6% below the 2005 peak.

The increase in sales was not been equally distributed across price bands. Most of the increases in 2016 were in the middle price points of the $200,000s and $300,000s. However, on a percentage basis, the price points between $400,000 and $1,000,000 also showed good growth.

2017-01-06 Hartford County Single Family Sales by Price Band

Year end is the only time that we look at pricing trends. The chart below updates the annual calculation of median and average home prices. For the first year in quite some time, the median and average sales prices both increased. It’s difficult to tell from the high level charts, but the pricing gains were concentrated in the lower price points. Sellers at the upper price points still struggled with more supply than demand.

2017-01-06 Hartford County Single Family Prices

The market is now well into the recovery phase, and is showing the first signs of upward price movement in quite some time. We’re looking forward to seeing what 2017 brings. Feel free to reach out to us if you have questions or would like more information.

2015 Hartford County Single-Family Sales Data

2015 was a good year for Hartford County real estate. The total number of closed single-family sales recorded in the Connecticut Multiple Listings Service (CTMLS) database was 7,701 (as of 1/6/2016).

2016-01-06 Hartford County Single Family Sales

The number of closed sales increased by 9% over the 2014 total. As the above chart shows, the market is approaching the activity levels seen in the early 2000s. The 7,701 sales are over 14% below the 2005 peak.

The increase in sales have not been equally distributed across price bands. Most of the increases have been at price points of less than $400,000, with essentially no increase in sales above $400,000.

2016-01-06 Hartford County Single Family Sales by Price Band

Year end is a good time to look at pricing trends. The chart below updates the annual calculation of median and average home prices. Although the number of sales has increased over the past few years, prices have been falling.

2016-01-06 Hartford County Single Family Prices

The big picture summary is that the region’s real estate market is still working through the impact of the financial crisis. The good news is that interest level is increasing, as shown by the increase in deals. On the other hand, prices are still adjusting downwards to look for a bottom.

We’re looking forward to seeing what 2016 brings … feel free to reach out to us if you have questions or would like more information.

2014 Wrap-Up: Single-Family Results

The headline trend in the Hartford County single-family real estate markets in 2014 was that there was no prevailing narrative. After a few years of uncertainty in the late 2000s following the financial crisis, the markets enjoyed a few years of obvious recovery. The results of 2014 cannot be explained in comparable terms.

The simple way to explain the year is to say it was a repeat of 2013. The number of single-family deals recorded in the CTMLS was nine higher in 2014 than in 2013. That’s a surprisingly small difference for a market with over 7,000 total deals. The chart below shows the single-family deal counts since 2001.

2015-01-15 Hartford County Single-Family Deals by Year

January is the only time of the year when we review pricing in the real estate market. Other analysts look at median and average prices on a monthly basis. We feel that the lumpiness of the market makes it difficult to trust data sampled over narrow time intervals.

The number of homes that close in a month varies wildly throughout the year. The types of homes that are available in the spring market seem different than those available in the winter. All of those factors, and more, could be addressed with a complicated model. And maybe the other analysts have the computing power and creativity to overcome those challenges. We don’t, so we stick with full year data. But I disgress…

Average prices were basically flat in 2014, while median fell by about 3%. The chart below shows average and median prices for single-family homes since 2001.

2015-01-15 Hartford County Single-Family Prices by Year

Why didn’t the average and median prices move in the same direction last year? Looking at the number of deals by price band seemed like a good place to start addressing that question.

There was a 4.9% increase in the number of deals in the $100,000s and a 4.7% decrease in the number of deals in the $200,000s. We believe that this is evidence of falling home prices during the year. Properties that used to sell in the low $200,000s fell into the high $100,000s.

There was an increase in the number of deals that closed at prices above $700,000. In fact, there was a 25% increase in the number of properties that sold for between $700,000 and $1,000,000. This was the second year in a row of strong deal count growth in that price band. It is important to note, however, that the price band only contributed 155 deals to the County’s total, so it is not a fundamental driver of the market.

2015-01-15 Hartford County Single-Family Deals by Price Band