Archive for the 'Market Statistics' Category
West Hartford Revaluation 2011 – Informal Hearings
West Hartford’s 2011 revaluation is progressing smoothly, and reached the public phase when Market Value letters began arriving during the second half of November.
Before going any further, it is very important to emphasize three key points:
1. Property taxes don’t change until July 2012.
2. Taxes would be calculated based on the “New Property Assessment” in the bottom right of the letter, not the market value.
3. The mill rate will change, so multiplying the current mill rate by the “New Property Assessment” is not a reliable estimate of future taxes.
Although the overall timeline extends through spring and into July, there is immediate action required for West Hartford homeowners who are concerned about the Market Values assigned to their properties.
The Town will be holding informal hearings on proposed market values through most of the month of December. Owners who wish to challenge their value need to call 860-561-7598 by Friday 12/9/2011 between 9:00 and 4:00 in order to schedule a one-on-one appointment.
Once you’re on the schedule, you should gather some market data to support your contention that the market value assigned to your property is too high. There are a couple of primary sources of information. The Assessor’s office has a number of large binders on their public tables in which you can look up sales information. They have also loaded the new market values of all the properties in town into the Vision Database. Finally, real estate agents can also help by gathering data through the MLS.
We have been in contact with the Assessor’s office in an effort to understand the big picture results of the revaluation. Most importantly, we have asked for their rough projections of what the mill rate would be if the current proposed market values held, and if the Town budget remained flat. We have also asked for data that will (hopefully) allow us to run different projections and scenarios of our own.
Until the Assessor’s office comes though with some information, our observations are limited to what we discover by looking at the market values of individual homes through the Vision system.
Most properties that we have reviewed showed a decreasing market value compared to the previous year, which is actually the value of the property according to the 2006 revaluation. Decreasing market values make sense since the market has definitely weakened over the past five years.
Comparing the new market value to the old market value is interesting, but not terribly useful. After the 2006 revaluation the Town decided to phase in the new values, but later froze the phase-in after the second year. The result of this decision is that for many homeowners the new market value is actually higher than the one on which their taxes are currently calculated.
For example, one home in Town was assigned a value of about $280k in the 2006 revaluation. Two years into the phase-in the taxable market value had increased to about $210k – still considerably below fair market. That value got locked in once the phase-in was frozen. Revaluation 2011 has set the value of this home at about $270k, so even though the market value has fallen since 2006, it’s still going to experience a step up in taxable market value. (We know this is confusing, it took us quite a while to understand, and model, the 2006 phase-in. Please feel free to email questions or post them in the comments.)
The revaluation has not treated all homes that sold in 2011 equally. Some properties that sold were assigned their sales price as the market value, which seems quite reasonable. Others were not … we saw one that was assigned a value meaningfully lower than the sales price.
That’s all we have for the moment. Check back in over the coming weeks – we’ll post additional information and analysis as it is available. And West Hartford homeowners, don’t forget to review the proposed market values in the letters you received and decide if you want to challenge your values.
Related Posts
West Hartford Revaluation
West Hartford Revaluation, Part II
Property Taxes and Revaluations
October Contracts: In Line With Expectations
There were 464 Hartford County single-family properties that went under contract during the month of October. Activity was closer to last year’s activity level than the 2009 level, which was influenced by a homebuyer tax credit deadline (Recall that buyers had to close by the end of November 2009, which meant getting their property under contract in October).
The County remains on track to exceed 2010′s total number of contracts. We need to have 635 homes go under contract in the last two months in order to match 2010, which is a reasonable number despite December traditionally being the slowest month of the year for contracts.
Fallout from the late-October winter storm, and the widespread power outages that came with it, definitely impacted the local real estate markets. Essentially, we had a week off as there were very few showings. That’s not to say we, or real estate agents overall, weren’t busy. As homeowners we had some cleanup to do on our property. And we spent a fair amount of time working with our sellers who had some work to do at their homes.
Once the weekend arrived we began to see signs of life. One West Hartford agent called asking to see a listing even though the home did not have power. He still did not have power at his home, and his buyer client did not have power either, but they were both ready to get back out there and look at homes again – flashlights in hand.
The market could go in one of two ways from here. Hopefully it will pick up where it left off before the storm and continue into late November, as often happens. The alternative is that buyers could just pack it in for the year and turn their attention to the holidays. This week should give us a good sense of buyer sentiment, and how likely we will be to beat 2010′s contract total.
September Contracts: A Modest Fall
Single-family contracts continued the downward trend in September, falling to 497 for the month. Through nine months of 2011, we remain on pace to finish the year slightly ahead of 2010 but behind the 2009 total.
There was a lot of interest in our markets at the beginning of September; it was a noticeable increase from the end of August and much of the summer. The rest of the month seemed pretty active too, so I’m a bit surprised to see the number of contracts come in at a lower level than August, though 35 deals (532 in August versus 497 in September) isn’t a huge number.
Looking a little deeper at last month versus this month, it appears that two towns experienced major slowdowns that nearly equal the total for the County. The number of contracts accepted in Southington decreased by 15 deals from August, while Windsor decreased by 13. Other towns also saw a less active September, but not by such a wide margin. Manchester, East Hartford, and Marborough reported decreases in the number of contracts of 8, 7, and 6 respectively. On the other side of the ledger, the town Bristol was up 7 deals and Glastonbury was up 6 deals.
Each town is its own market, and this is yet another example of how the data can vary. Below is the year over year comparison for each town in the County, showing a 12% increase in activity for September 2011 over the same month in 2010.
August Contracts: A Wash Out
Single-family contracts totaled 532 in August, a slight decline from July’s total, though an increase over August 2010′s tally – it was a summer month with sporadic activity.
Hurricane Irene passed through the County during the final week of the month, putting most of the real estate market on hold for at least three days, with some areas affected through the end of the month. We don’t know for sure how much of an impact it had, but feel comfortable saying that the number of deals would have been higher without the storm – there were essentially no showings over the storm weekend.
Interest in the real estate market seems to be picking up after the extended period of downtime caused by the storm and holiday on back-to-back weekends. It will be interesting to see how the fall market plays out this year, and ultimately how the year ends. As the chart above shows, the market is about 1.5x as busy during the warm months as it is during the cold months. It’s a noticeable difference, but there are definitely buyers making offers on homes all year.
Inventory levels decreased slightly during the month, suggesting that either the pace of deals increased or the pace of listings slowed. August showed fewer contracts than July – the pace of deals slowed – so the pace of listings must have slowed even more.
We’ve mentioned this before, but it’s something worth repeating … buyers have an opportunity to get into homes at prices well off the peak, and with very attractive interest rates. This applies to move-up buyers in addition to first-time buyers. Just give it some thought … we’ll be happy to show you what’s available.
Here’s how the month went for each of the individual towns.
July Contracts: Plugging Along
Contracts negotiated on single-family homes this July fell from the previous month’s total as buyers took their traditional summer break. Transactions for the year continue to track the 2009 data reasonably well, though at a slightly lower activity level.
Buyers have a nice opportunity in the market right now. Inventory is at a slightly elevated level, providing a good selection. Competition from other buyers is relatively low, so immediate bids are usually not needed for the “best” properties. Prices have been trending downwards, and financing terms remain very attractive.
Last month we were concerned about the pace of new listings. Fortunately, homes seem to be coming onto the market at a sustainable pace, as inventory levels have held steady at about 8.7 months since the beginning of the spring market.
It’s good that inventory is not ballooning, because that would put even more pressure on prices to move lower as sellers competed against each other to “win” a buyer. Unfortunately, it’s also a reasonable assumption that there are even more home owners out there who would like to sell their properties. Some would-be sellers have not yet listed because they’re hoping to wait for a more favorable environment, while others are properties caught up in a distressed situation.
Inventory by town is spread throughout a very broad range, with Newington and West Hartford showing the lowest inventory levels…
