Archive for the 'Mortgages' Category
Real Estate Stories of the Past Couple Weeks
There have been a number of interesting articles about real estate in the financial press over the past couple weeks. Here’s a quick wrap-up of what you may have missed while you were off for the holidays…
Wall Street Journal, December 23rd: Data from the National Association of Realtors shows that Home Sales, Prices Brighten (subscription required). Though the current data is positive, the author expresses concern about “a continuing flood of foreclosures and the eventual withdrawal of government life support.” They note that the housing has been strongest in “middle-class homes with short commutes,” something that rings true in the Greater Hartford markets.
Wall Street Journal, December 24th: The next day, the headlines reversed to New-Home Sales Drop 11.3% as Impact of Stimulus Fades (Subscription Required). This time the data came from the Commerce Department, which noted that the measure was very volatile (it had risen 7.4% the previous month) and new home sales make up less than 15% of total home sales. And in our area, new home sales are far less than 15% of the total.
Wall Street Journal, December 24th: On the same page, we learn that Resession Alters Migration Pattern in US. Although this story isn’t directly about real estate, it is interesting to consider the implication of people moving around the country on local real estate markets. A large map shows the population changes by state for 2004-2005 and then for 2008-2009. Florida and Nevada showed the most dramatic shifts, from strongly growing to modestly decreasing populations. Connecticut appears to be consistent across the two time periods with both reflecting losses of between 0 and 50,000 people.
Wall Street Journal, December 29th: Everyone who loves a good house hunting story definitely needs to read this tale as A Picky Home Buyer Pursues an Epic Hunt for ‘the One’ in the San Francisco Bay Area. It took over two years and 298 properties for Lidia and Doug Pringle to find the right place to call home. Wow.
Calculated Risk, December 30th: During the past two declines in home values (early 1980s and early 1990s), prices did not bottom until the unemployment rate peaked.
The Big Picture, December 31st: Morgan Stanley released a research piece suggesting that the 10 Year Treasury could rise to 5.5% in 2010. What caught our eye was that they estimated that the higher Treasury rates could push rates for 30-year fixed mortgages up to between 7.5% and 8%. These rates are, of course, much higher than buyers are used to seeing. The commentary basically says that Morgan Stanley must be concerned about inflation increasing, and that the charts the commentators use to look at the market show strong increases in inflation expectations over the past year.
Wall Street Journal, December 31st: The Department of Housing and Urban Development have had Rules to Clarify Cost of Mortgages in the works for a while, tightening the requirements around Good Faith Estimates that lenders give to buyers when quoting mortgage rates. Their overall goal is to force lenders to report all of their fees and rates in a way that allows borrowers to more easily compare rates between lenders. It will be interesting to see how this transition goes as lenders and real estate attorneys adjust to new regulations.
Wall Street Journal Blogs, January 1st: The Five Key Housing Issues to Watch in 2010 are 1. mortgage rates; 2. the future of Fannie, Freddie, and the FHA; 3. loan modifications; 4. more loan resets; and 5. the tax credit.
New York Times, January 1st: Some feel that the Federal Government’s effort to modify loans is Adding to Housing Woes. They argue that allowing homeowners to remain in their homes by modifying their mortgage has been counterproductive. Homeowners have their hopes falsely raised and waste money trying to keep a home they simply cannot afford before finally defaulting on the modified mortgage.
So that’s the word on The Street as the real estate markets move into 2010. The headlines seem to have a negative bias, highlighting concerning data, unsuccessful recovery programs, and the unfortunate reality of many Americans struggling. We’ll have to see how it all plays out here in Greater Hartford. And as always we’ll hope for the best and plan for the worst.
National Real Estate News Roundup
There have been a few interesting real estate stories and announcements around the nation this week. But first, the changing seasons along tree-lined Farmington Avenue in West Hartford Center.
Today’s Wall Street Journal has a piece on Shadow Inventory (Subscription Required), which are homes that are not currently on the market but are expected to be listed for sale in the near future. They focus on foreclosures, and found about 1.5 million mortgages currently in the foreclosure process and an additional 1.2 million delinquent enough that banks could initiate foreclosure proceedings. To put this in perspective, a recent National Association of Realtors press release announced that the seasonally adjusted rate of existing home sales was about 5.24 million in July. So lenders could potentially take ownership of enough homes (2.7 million) to represent more than 6 months of inventory at the pace of sales today. Presumably this would impact other areas more than Greater Hartford. However, it’s difficult to track distressed properties until they are listed for sale, so we can’t be sure.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that mortgage rates have been falling. Their latest survey shows that rates for 30 year fixed mortgages have fallen below 5.00% nationally for loans with 20% down. Our local rates seem to be just above 5% when looking at the annual percentage rate (APR), and have also been falling.
Money Magazine wrote a quick piece about the basics of FHA mortgages. We’ve been seeing a lot of buyers using these types of mortgages since it’s just about the only way to buy a home with less than a 10% downpayment (you’re allowed to do 3.5%). Specifically, they touch on the more difficult home inspection and the increased fees/expenses associated with the program. Both are important considerations, though for buyers that don’t have the cash to qualify for a conventional loan they are just another part of the cost of buying.
Finally, there is much speculation and debate about whether or not Congress will extend the First Time Buyer Tax Credit. Financial blog Calculated Risk gathered up the opinions of various economists, painting the program as a poor use of taxpayer resources. The essence of the argument is that many of the people claiming the credit would have bought a home anyway, so also giving them $8,000 is a waste of money. Supporting the position is a National Association of Realtors press release stating that of the 1.8 million to 2.0 million that will claim the credit this year, only 350,000 of them would not have purchased without the credit.
Will You Take Advantage of the $8,000 First Time Buyer Credit?
I’ve been working with a lot of first time buyers this year. Many of them have been motivated by the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit that the government is offering. A good number of them have already closed on a property and are set to receive their refund next year when they submit their Federal Income Taxes.
Some of my buyers are still looking though. They are waiting for the right house. Or they found a house and it’s fallen through for inspection reasons, so they’re back out there again. As an aside, this is more common than you’d think; I have 4 buyers looking right now that are in this inspection situation.
Anyway, in order to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit being offered this year, a first time buyer needs to close on that property on or before November 30, 2009. That gives us approximately 3 months remaining to find a property and close before this opportunity goes away.
Some buyers are asking me if I think there will be a similar program next year. I honestly don’t know. Last year there was a buyer incentive program, but it changed for 2009. I don’t know what next year will bring and if Congress will decide we still need this type of housing stimulus option.
Buyers are also asking me if they should buy this year, simply because of the $8,000 credit. I honestly don’t know that one either. Each person is different, so that needs to be assessed individually.
But what do we need to do if you do want to buy this year and be able to take advantage of the credit? Er, get moving! Closing on a property typically takes anywhere from 30-60 days. That takes into account how long it takes to get a mortgage processed, in addition to giving most sellers enough time to move on to their next place. Working backwards from November 30, that means you should have an accepted contract no later than October 1, 2009.
I would actually recommend trying to have something in place before October 1 though, for a few reasons.
First, mortgages have been taking longer to process recently due to stricter underwriting guidelines, particularly FHA loans, as well as an increased volume. I believe this is only going to get worse in the next few months as a slew of buyers try to jam in a purchase before November 30 and lenders continue to deal with more underwriting guidelines and leaner staff levels.
Second, home inspection issues could cause a delay or the deal to blow up, so you may need to start over.
Third, closing attorneys have limited capacity and good closing attorneys are going to find themselves slammed in November. People normally like to try and close at the end of the month (or the Friday closest to the end of the month) and this tax credit situation is going to only make it worse for November.
If you want to take advantage of the credit, I would recommend trying to close in the middle of November, or sooner, if at all possible. That way if you have problems with your mortgage, there is some wiggle room for you to still get the transaction closed before the end of the month. This would most likely not be possible if you’re scheduling a November 27 or 30 closing and there are issues. And how annoying would it be if you’ve planned to get everything done so you can take advantage of the credit and then you miss the deadline at the very end? Uh, very. So budget enough time if you can.
Happy property hunting!