Archive for the 'Selling' Category
HCPR: Soaring Sales in Second Quarter
Sales in Hartford County soared in the second quarter of 2010 versus the second quarter of 2009 thanks to the Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit. Median prices were up modestly over the year-previous quarter. Median days on market fell meaningfully, reflecting the frenzied pace of the County’s residential real estate market as the tax credit overlapped with the traditional spring market.
Single-Family Homes
Second quarter sales of single-family homes increased 23.8% compared to the year-earlier period. Although the total number of 2,047 sales improves on the results for the quarter in both 2008 and 2009, second quarter activity still trailed all of the years between 2000 and 2007 for which the CTMLS has data.
The median price for single-family homes in the County increased by 1.3% from $227,000 to $230,000. Sales price per square foot, another valuation metric, remained virtually unchanged at $147/sqft. Finally, the median time on market decreased from 40 days to 31 days.
Condominiums
Hartford County condominiums trended in the same directions as the single-family homes during the quarter. The number of sales was up 43.8% over the second quarter last year, with the 644 total sales running ahead of 2008 — 2009 and behind 2000 — 2007.
The median sales price rose 3.0% during the quarter, from $165,000 to $169,900, and the median price per square foot held steady at $134/sqft. Condominiums also experienced a decrease in sales time, with the median days on market falling from 51 to 45 days.
Residential Real Estate is More Than the Tax Credit
Local residential real estate markets continued to function even after buyers could no longer claim the Federal Tax Credit. As expected, there was a dramatic lull in the number of contracts written in May and June, which should be visible in the number of third quarter closings. However, buyers still made offers even after the credit expired.
Being a Real Estate Agent: A Fresh Start
Kyle and I have a lot of fun as real estate agents. Meeting new and interesting people is a big part of it. And it’s also very rewarding to help buyers and sellers through a large and important transaction.
But real estate isn’t always as glamorous as it may seem. We not only have to find our clients, but we also have to demonstrate the expertise and provide the level of service that we advertise. Most agents work on their own. They have to follow the activity in the markets, keep track of numerous dates for each transaction, and make sure all their paperwork is in order. At the same time, they have to be available to show houses to buyers and market their listings. There’s a lot of grunt work involved to make the overall experience seem effortless.
We feel we have an advantage in working together, and think we’ve done a pretty good job building the operations of our business. However, it can always be better. This summer, Kyle and I are going to make a fresh start. We’re going to keep everything that is working well, and we’re going to improve everything else. Most of the changes will be behind-the-scenes, and not visible to our clients.
For example, one task is to make our home office workspace more efficient. Right now we’re a little cluttered with files and marketing materials that have built up over the years. Do we need folders for deals that closed three years ago next to our desk? No, they can move to the basement. Do we need 37 copies of a glossy marketing sheet from a sold listing? No, those can be recycled. What about all of these blank contracts and forms? Let’s go electronic and get rid of them all. We can get our workspace set up so that we have exactly what we need, and only what we need, close at hand. I know, yet another example of us being dorks. But the faster we can get our paperwork done, the more time we can spend with clients.
Another task is to take a close look at the expense side of the equation. Are we getting the support services we need for the best possible price? This leads to a change that will be visible to clients. As of today, July 1, we’ve switched to a different broker, RE/MAX Premier, REALTORS based in West Hartford Center. Because we think of ourselves as entrepreneurs, we end up doing a lot of things differently than other agents. We don’t rely on our broker in the same way that many agents do. RE/MAX is more supportive of the specific ways we run our business and a better fit for us.
Contrary to common perception, brokers work for agents, not the other way around. They provide office space in which we can work and hold meetings. They provide legal and business support so that we don’t have to launch and run our own company. They provide educational opportunities. They sometimes generate leads based on their brand. Some brokers offer more services than others. In all cases, the agents pay for these services.
By moving to a different broker, we’re getting only what we need and not paying for extras that we don’t use. We’ll still be providing the same level of service that we have since we started in the business. The change really doesn’t impact our buyer clients at all. And the only difference our seller clients will see is a different color sign in their front yard – our marketing program for listings does not change at all. It may seem like a big deal, but it’s really not.
The final phase of the Fresh Start is looking for new opportunities. As we go through the summer, we’re going to be searching for ways to work smarter and better. Are there new technologies or techniques to advertise our listings so that our seller clients get more offers and better offers? Are there different ways to communicate with our buyer clients so that they have a better understanding, and more confidence, in the search process? What can we do to improve this blog so that the general public understands more about the local residential real estate markets?
We’re going to wipe the slate clean and take a fresh look at how best to be a residential real estate agent in Greater Hartford. Every now and then it feels good to press the reset button.
An Economist’s View of the National Housing Market
Economists are divided as to the direction of the national housing market. Some believe that the environment is stabilizing and that prices will increase from here. Others see further price decreases once the government support fades away.
Barry Ritholz is one economist we follow regularly, through his posts on The Big Picture blog. Right now, he has a strong negative view on the future of the US housing markets. One of yesterday’s posts broke down his views in more detail.
Looking back at how we got to where we are today, Mr. Ritholz notes that that low interest rates throughout the 2000s caused a credit bubble, which in turn caused a housing boom. Lots of people bought houses they couldn’t afford because poor lending standards and very low mortgage rates allowed them to jump into the real estate markets. Five million homeowners have been foreclosed upon, and he expects five million more foreclosures to come.
His forward-looking thesis is that even after a 33% fall from the peak, prices are still too high when looking at traditional valuation metrics like prices vs income and the cost of owning vs renting. Supply is high, with more waiting in the wings. Demand is well below the inflated peak levels, caused by tighter credit and high unemployment. And when markets correct from severe imbalances, they usually move well below the mean.
How does his thesis translate to Greater Hartford?
Our markets did not appreciate nearly as much as markets in some other parts of the country, which has also meant that we have not seen as severe a correction. However, housing in the northeast is generally more expensive than it is/was in the boom areas, so there is more room to fall. And there is no guarantee it will always be more expensive up here.
Inventory: Real estate inventories in Hartford County checked in at just over 6 months of sales activity at the end of the first quarter. That’s right on the boundary between a neutral market and one that favors buyers, so we’re not seeing any major warning signs here. The number at the end of the second quarter should be comparable, or even better, since the tax credit created a huge spike in deals that will close by the end of June.
Foreclosures: The number of foreclosures has increased dramatically in the past few years. A recent Hartford Courant article focusing on the amount of money marshals earn indicates that “five or six years ago there were 3,000 or 4,000 foreclosures” per year in the state. Compare that to a statistic later in the article stating that 20,000 foreclosures were filed in 2009, which was 40% more than 2008.
Employment: The employment situation in Greater Hartford has improved over the past year. People we talk with say that companies are adding employees, though many positions remain unfilled and may never be filled. We are also seeing more relocation buyers coming from out of town, which of course means that they have jobs waiting for them. That’s the short-term view. The long-term view is more negative. One of our major employers has gone on the record saying that they want to move jobs anywhere outside of Connecticut. The comment made headlines, but nobody seemed especially surprised by the news. The housing market depends on buyers with steady income, which depends on employment.
Credit and Mortgage Rates: Buyers with good credit are able to get mortgages, and are currently seeing very low rates. However, buyers with poor credit are having trouble financing a purchase and often have to sit out of the market for a year or two to repair their credit. We know of numerous buyers in this situation – all of whom are gainfully employed.
Overall, the environment in Greater Hartford is trending in the same direction as the national picture for three out of four areas that Mr. Ritholz identifies as concerns. It’s difficult to know how severe our readings are relative to the national average, but it seems like we may be at risk for falling prices if his analysis turns out to be correct.