The Courant is projecting that the three property classes will have assessment ratios of 70% for commercial, 50% for apartments (which now includes four-family buildings) and 30.6% for residential (condos, single-families, two-families and three-families). They expect the mill rate to be somewhere between 76 and 77, and used 76.79 in their calculations.

Hartford property owners interested in estimating what their July 2012 property taxes based on this model can use the following formula:

So for a residential property this comes out to be…

… which is about the same as …

Owners of commercial and apartment properties would need to start with the first formula and plug in the appropriate assessment ratio.

Since we are still in the early stages of the revaluation process, this is a rough estimate and a lot can still change before tax bills go out at the end of June of next year.

Thoughts & Observations

The most challenging part of modeling the Hartford tax system is getting the residential assessment ratio correct. For the coming year it is supposed to be set so that the overall tax burden of residential property class increases by 3.5%. That was a compromise agreed to by the various stakeholders last spring and passed into law by the state legislature. The primary article attributes the 30ish percent assessment ratio to City Assessor John Philip, and lead author Jenna Carlesso confirmed that he provided that number.

The Courant is forecasting that the mill rate will actually increase under the new system. This is a bit of a surprise since the City’s overall goal is to start reducing the mill rate in order to help attract more businesses.

Although it seems counter-intuitive, it’s okay if the mill rate rises. The data clearly shows that the tax burdens for commercial property owners is decreasing, which is more important than the perception caused by the slightly higher mill rate. In the previous system we had an additional layer of complexity called the Business Surcharge – an additional tax over and above the standard tax – that is now gone. The City has taken an important first step to making the commercial mill rate directly comparable to other towns in the state.

Since the City Assessor has not come out with an official set of projections, we think it is important to continue to develop our own model on what could happen. We’ll keep trying to get data from the Assessor and hopefully have a second set of projections to share in the coming weeks.

Presumably the Courant team succeeded in getting additional information from Assessor Philip as inputs to their model. In thinking about repeating the calculation on our own, we don’t see any way to accurately do it without knowing the aggregate market values for each property class for both last year and this year. Last spring the previous City Assessor provided us a good amount of information, but not the breakdown of the residential class. Since the rules of the game changed to move four-families from the residential assessment bucket to the apartment bucket, we would need to calculate the impact of that change before being able to distribute the tax burden correctly and arrive at a potential mill rate.

Using the Courant’s Data to Calculate Their Projected Mill Rate

For those that are curious, here’s how we used the data that the Courant published to back into the mill rate and residential assessment ratio they are projecting.

After inputting all the data into a spreadsheet, we focused on the commercial and apartment properties. We knew the assessment ratios, so we were able to calculate the assumed mill rate. Once we knew the mill rate, we were able to use that in the residential properties to calculate the assessment ratio. Fortunately the values were consistent across all 9 properties once rounding errors were considered.

Here is our table, the cells with blue text are inputs while the cells with black text are calculations.

Related Posts
Hartford’s Revaluation 2011 – Update
Overview of Hartford’s Property Tax System

Today we turn our attention to analyzing the big picture results of the revaluation. Amanda Falcone’s piece in the Thursday’s Hartford Courant quotes West Hartford Assessor Joseph Dakers Sr. as saying the new market values will “likely cause the town’s grand list to decrease by 5.6%, or about $316 million.”

Based on that statement, and a number of additional steady state assumptions detailed below, we’re projecting the new mill rate to end up somewhere between 33 and 34 mills. If accurate, it would represent about a 2% average increase in the tax burden on real property owners, and a 15% decrease taxes on personal property (business equipment) and motor vehicles.

We would expect individual property owners to experience much larger swings in their tax burdens depending on their specific properties. Some will experience larger increases, while others will see their taxes go down. It will all depend on how their individual properties were assessed during each of the two previous revaluations. A ballpark figure for future tax burden can be calculated using the following formula:

Our mill rate is a very rough estimate, but we feel it is an accurate depiction of what is likely to happen if the proposed market values hold and basically everything else stays the same. It analyzes the impact of the revaluation without addressing any other factors that may impact the Town budget.

Please feel free to check our work, which is shown below in detail, and post your thoughts in the comments.

Step 1: Interpreting the Data
The whole calculation is based on the Town Assessor’s statement that $316 million is about 5.6% of Grand List 2010. So:

The context of the quote doesn’t specify exactly what the Assessor means when he says “Grand List.” Is he talking about the market values, Gross Assessment (70% of market value), or the Net Assessment (after all exemptions are subtracted out)? Is it for only Real Property or does it include Personal Property and Motor Vehicles?

Last year I worked with the Assessor a bit when Grand List 2010 was released, modeling the whole system. In comparing the “Grand List” number he seems to be working with now to that spreadsheet, my conclusion is that he is talking about the total Gross Assessment for Real Property. Since the revaluation is focused exclusively on Real Property, this seems like a reasonable conclusion. Below is a summary of the taxes generated last year by Grand List 2010 (Note: Gross Assessment and Exemptions sourced from a report emailed to me by the Town Assessor in February 2010).

These calculations show that the Town would have sent out property tax bills totaling about $197 million. Page F-2 of the 2011-2012 Annual Town Budget shows a table summarizing the Town’s revenues, discussing property taxes, and showing the tax collection rate. It shows Current Property Taxes in the Fiscal Year 2012 Adopted Budget as $195,496,802. So our calculation of the billings is quite close to what the Town expected to receive – a good sign. Our calculation gets even closer to the target when we include their assumed 99% tax collection rate.

Step 2: Defining Assumptions
The agreement of our calculation with the Town Assessor’s quote and the expected revenue provide enough confidence to move on to the next stage of the calculation. But before we can run more numbers, we need to be explicit about our assumptions. Here are the five main assumptions in our forward looking analysis and projections.

1. The Town Assessor was properly quoted in the Courant, and we have properly interpreted what he said. The discussion above provides two independent points of collaboration, which makes us feel good.

2. Personal Property and Motor Vehicle Gross Assessments remain unchanged.

3. Town revenue raised from Property Taxes remains unchanged.

4. All phase-in exemptions are eliminated. We’ve discussed the frozen phase-in elsewhere and will skip over it this time. It’s important, but is not the focus of this analysis.

5. All “normal” exemptions remain unchanged.

Step 3: Projecting Grand List 2011
Now we’re ready to update the table from above to reflect our assumptions for Grand List 2011.

First we calculated the new Gross Assessment for Real Property by subtracting $316 million. Next, we eliminated the Phase-In Exemptions, so everyone is taxed based on the market values determined by this revaluation. Finally, we optimized the Mill Rate so that the total Tax Revenue exactly equals the previous table.

The resulting 33.67 mill rate is more precise that we can reasonably calculate given the rough nature of this estimate, so at the top of the story we said that it would end up somewhere between 33 and 34.

So there it is, our attempt to ballpark the West Hartford mill rate for the tax year starting in July 2012. We have no doubt that there will be factors outside of the revaluation that will impact the Town, and therefore the budget. However, we hope this provides a starting point for understanding how the revaluation will impact property tax revenue.

Again, please feel free to post questions, concerns, and thoughts in the comments section.

Related Posts
West Hartford Revaluation 2011 – Informal Hearings
West Hartford Revaluation
West Hartford Revaluation, Part II
Property Taxes and Revaluations

Most of the time the subject comes up as I’m touring around with a buyer and trying to cover various home buying subjects as we drive from one property to the next. My client will casually ask about taxes, expecting an answer along the lines of “They’re low/high compared to other towns.” In most towns I can give an answer like that, and then also talk about where that town is in the revaluation process.

When we’re touring Hartford, my answer is usually, “They’re complicated; would you like the short version or the long version?” To their credit, most buyers seem to ask for the long version. They want to know how it works, and what possibilities exist in the future. After all, they’re going to be on the hook for making the tax payments if they buy a house in the City. And as their agent, I feel it’s my responsibility to make sure my buyers have all the information they need to make an informed decision.

I’ve spent a considerable amount of time trying to understand exactly how the taxes work in Hartford.

I’ve talked to the City Assessor and various staff members to work through the details of the current system at different points of time. I’ve talked to our elected officials at both the City and State level to hear the arguments for why they have advocated for different implementations. I’ve sat in on presentations and negotiations between different constituency groups as they hash out a forward looking plan.

Despite all this effort, I still cannot neatly summarize property taxes in the City of Hartford for someone with basic municipal property tax knowledge. It’s just too complicated. I can’t even build a spreadsheet/model that will predict the coming year’s taxes based on an expected City budget. There are too many moving parts.

The best I can do is create a resource, so that those interested in learning about how property taxes work in the City of Hartford have a central place to go for information. I’ve made an effort to summarize as best I can, and I’ve also collected and sorted links to over 50 articles, presentations, and videos on the subject dating back to 2006.

The City of Hartford: Property Taxes page is a work in progress, and I definitely appreciate feedback and comments on how to make it more helpful, more accurate, and generally better.

Revaluations can seem scary to homeowners, and are often associated with tax increases. Hopefully the discussion that follows will help prepare you for the process, so that you understand what is happening and how you may be impacted as a West Hartford homeowner.

The Big Picture
Connecticut towns generate a significant portion of their revenue from property taxes. In the 2010-2011 Budget, West Hartford expected to collect about $192 million in general property taxes, which would fund nearly 82% of the $234 million-ish budget.

Property taxes are levied against residential property, commercial property, personal property (really business property), and motor vehicles. Just about everyone contributes in one way or another. Ideally the cost of running the town is balanced between the different constituents fairly, since they all utilize different services. As the chart to the right shows, there is about $10 billion in property in West Hartford right now.

Running the Numbers
Property tax calculations begin with a Market Value. This number is what the Town feels your home is worth, or at least what they felt it would sell for back in 2006 during the previous revaluation. Since doing a custom analysis for each and every property in town is unrealistic, they utilize a valuation model that is guided by market transactions.

Between revaluations, the main way that Market Value can change is if there have been improvements to a property. The easiest example is if someone buys a vacant lot in a neighborhood and builds a new home on it. Obviously, the property is more valuable now that it has been “improved” and the Market Value would increase to account for those changes.

Homeowners making other “improvements” to their property may, or may not, cause their Market Value to change. The Assessor’s website notes that maintenance and cosmetic changes generally do not impact the Market Value, while structural renovations or improvements may. For example, replacing a roof or furnace won’t lead to a higher tax bill. The town is more interested in knowing if you added central air, finished the basement, or built an addition. But no matter what work you do, or how it impacts taxes, it’s important for any work you do to be properly permitted and inspected.

Once the Market Value is determined, it is multiplied by a state mandated 70% assessment ratio to calculate the Assessed Value of the property. The Town uses the total Assessed Value of all property on the Grand List to set the Mill Rate so that sufficient revenue is generated to fund the budget.

People are sometimes confused about how their home’s value, the mill rate, and the budget interact to determine their property taxes. The budget sets the total level of spending — that’s what necessitates taxes in the first place. Using property values is simply a strategy for distributing the burden across owners, while the Mill Rate is a mathematical plug to make the revenue equal the expenses.

Revaluations usually shift the burden in two ways; they reallocate between property classes, and also between owners within each class. Residential and Commercial property are the two main property classes, though the chart above shows that there is far more Residential in town. Revaluations also reallocate amongst the individual property owners within a class, which unfortunately can lead to winners and losers.

The Upcoming Revaluation
The Assessor’s department has published a timeline that outlines the entire process. Right now they are gathering information for the 2011 Grand List. You may have seen the data mailers that they sent out last spring requesting information from homeowners. The goal of that mailer was to get everyone to confirm that the town had the correct information for their property.

New Market Values will be mailed out in October. Homeowners who don’t like their new values are able to schedule a meeting, called an “Informal Hearing,” to explain their position. Someone from the Assessor’s office will discuss the revaluation process and note the concerns before reviewing the value. Owners should bring documentation to the meeting to support their claims of unfair assessment.

Supporting data is very important to the dispute process. The town recently unveiled a brand new Geographic Information System (GIS) Website. It can be accessed via the Assessor’s home page, and is a very powerful tool for researching West Hartford property records.

One of the new features that was not available in the previous system is called “Sales Mapping,” which is supposed to let you pick out a property (yours) and then search for comparable sales. It may be a helpful tool, but at this point there is only sales data through 2009. The other main way to find data to dispute your Market Value is to reach out to your favorite Realtor for help.

Results from the informal hearings are also mailed to homeowners. If there is still a disagreement about value, owners have one additional opportunity to be heard, petitioning the Board of Assessment Appeals. More information about both the revaluation process and the various stages of appeal can be found on the town website in the Assessment Office area.

Hopefully the upcoming revaluation will be smooth and uneventful. Homeowners play a role in the process and need to understand how property taxes work, and how to dispute unfair Market Values.

Related Posts:
Property Revaluation Schedule for Other Towns in Hartford County
Property Taxes and Revaluations

We’re sensing some confusion over the future direction of property taxes among some of our buyer clients and homeowner friends. We don’t know pretend to know exactly what will happen, but have a theory we thought we should share:

You’ll notice that property values (assessments) do not figure into the property tax calculation. Even though your home, or the home you hope to buy, may have fallen in value since the last revaluation, you should not expect that to automatically translate into lower property taxes in the future.

The manner in which property taxes are calculated can be confusing to people, and revaluations add an extra level of complication. Back in the day, when home values only went up, revaluations were met with a combination of excitement and fear. Excitement since someone would be giving us an estimate of how much equity we had earned by owning a home in a rising market. But also fear because, “If my home actually doubled in value, and the mill rate stays the same, then my taxes are going to double!”

Although that statement it true, the mill rate will adjust any time there is a major change in the Grand List (the total value of all property). Every time there was a major increase in a town’s Grand List during a revaluation, the mill rate would decrease to keep the actual taxes paid roughly in line with previous years. Here’s a good example, the history of the mill rate in Newington. You can see that the mill rate actually falls most years in which there is a revaluation.

The goal of a revaluation is distribute the tax burden fairly across property owners. Properties in a town gain and lose value differently, so the state requires that towns catch up with those changes every five years. The only way a revaluation will make a meaningful impact on your individual taxes is if your property’s value changes in a dramatically different manner than the average property in town.

These days it’s difficult to know if a home has increased or decreased in value since the last revaluation – it depends on home price trends and the revaluation schedule in the specific town. But suppose there is a town where the prices have fallen 10% across the board since the last revaluation. Homeowners there should expect to see their individual assessments fall, but are also likely to see the mill rate jump.

At the end of the day, the town budget determines how much must be raised in property taxes. If the town budget is flat, then next year will be the same total tax as this year. The mill rate will be set to ensure that the appropriate amount of money is collected. Decreasing property values, unfortunately, have nothing to do with the level of municipal spending, which is what actually determines our property taxes.

We decided to look at all the single family home sales in Hartford County that were input using the Grand List 2009 mill rates. The initial data set had just over 4,000 closed MLS transactions (deemed reliable but not guaranteed) with listing dates between July 1, 2009 and June 19, 2010, which should have been input using the Grand List 2009 mill rates. After eliminating deals with missing data, we ended up with just over 3,800 data points spread across 29 towns.

Next we did some simple calculations and took the median values for everything. Ideally all of this data would have been published in a sortable table embedded in the post, but we couldn’t get it to work right (feel free to send tips or hints). Instead you’re getting the same large table sorted in different ways … our apologies in advance.

The first sort is based on the dollar amount of taxes paid – who wrote the largest checks?

All values are medians

Residents of the more expensive towns wrote the largest checks. Since the values of their homes are the highest, the tax bill – even at a lower tax rate – will he higher.

What if adjust for the home prices? Who pays the highest percentage of their home’s value as taxes each year?

All values are medians

With this adjustment, some towns with low median sales prices have moved to the top of the list, though some of the higher median sales price towns are also paying more than 2% of their home’s value in taxes each year.

Finally, we could adjust for home size to see who pays the most taxes per square foot of house…

All values are medians

This time we see towns with smaller homes and higher median sales prices leading the pack. The results should be very similar to a sales price per square foot calculation. People end up paying the highest taxes per square foot in towns where they also pay the highest purchase prices per square foot.

These results show a slightly different result that simply looking at the mill rates, though the mill rates are helpful as a quick first estimate. Farmington has some of the lowest taxes of the towns with high median sales prices, while Windsor Locks is the least taxed town with low median sales prices.

Don’t be Afraid

Many property owners hear the word revaluation and instinctively assume that it’s just a cover for raising taxes. It’s not. The point of a revaluation is to collect the funds needed to support the budget in a fair manner. Revaluations have nothing to do with how much the Mayor and City Council plan to spend.

The 2011 revaluation should be a non-event in many ways. The process starts with the Assessor’s office determining the “fair value” for every property in the City — the price at which it would sell in the open market in a fair sale. Since the last revaluation was in 2006, and real estate prices have not changed significantly, most residents should find that their “fair value” will be in the same range, within 25% of last time.

Even though the market hasn’t moved too far, finding the right value for each property will still be a challenge. Some homes will have lost value since 2006, while others will have gained. Improvements play a role in the recalibration, as do market trends. The City will do their best to be consistent and fair to everyone throughout the process.

Not a Repeat of the 2006 Revaluation

The revaluation in 2006 was very stressful for homeowners. Prices had increased dramatically since the previous revaluation and people were scared that their property taxes would also jump by a huge amount. The notice letters stated that owners shouldn’t try to calculate their actual tax bill based on the new fair value, however, the City did little else to reduce the uncertainty as to just how much we would be paying in the future.

As a specific example, our “fair value” increased by over 268% in the first letter we received, to a value that was far more than our home was worth. We chose to challenge our new value and, after making our case to the Assessor’s office, were pleased to receive notice that our new fair value would only be 244% more than before. This was more in line with everyone else’s increase, and resulted in a more reasonable market value. We found the Assessor’s office to be helpful throughout the process.

Because there was such a large jump in fair values, and because different properties appreciated at different rates, the City decided to phase in the new values over a five year period. Every property’s fair value has been increasing in equal steps so that by Grand List 2010 the new fair value will be in place. The phase in seemed to have two primary goals; easing people’s fears about the revaluation process, and providing relief for the owners who’s property had appreciated well more than the average and were facing much higher taxes.

If the fair value phase in wasn’t complicated enough, the City also chose to phase out a surcharge on non-residential property by changing the assessment ratio each year. Hartford property taxes have been uniquely difficult to calculate with these two processes happening simultaneously.

What’s Coming in 2011

After all the confusion from the previous go-round, the next revaluation will be a piece of cake. At least that’s the plan. All properties will use the same assessment ratio — back to 70% like the rest of the state. The mill rate should fall to make up for the increasing assessment ratio, making Hartford taxes much easier to calculate, and to compare to those of other towns. The lower mill rate will reduce the taxes on personal property, which includes cars and equipment owned by businesses.

The revaluation will proceed according to the following schedule, which is available in a helpful pamphlet on the Assessor’s website:

May 2010 – Sep 2010: Data mailers to residential property owners
Oct 2010 – Sep 2011: Sales data collection & verification
Oct 1, 2011: Effective date of Revaluation
Nov 2011: Notices of new values mailed
Nov 2011 – Dec 2011: Informal hearings to discuss new values
Jan 2012: Results of informal hearings mailed
Jan 2012 – Apr 2012: Formal appeals process
May 2012: City Council adopts new budget and sets mill rate
Jun 2012: Property taxes reflect new assessment

The most important part of the revaluation is the Informal Hearings process at the end of 2011. This is the time when individual homeowners have a chance to sit down with someone from the Assessor’s office to learn more about why their fair value is so high.

By making a reasonable argument, and supporting the argument with data, it is possible to get the fair value lowered. Our experience was that bringing relevant data was critical, that they were open to considering qualitative factors their data did not capture, and that their goal really was to end up with a result that is fair to all property owners in the City.

For More Information

The best place to learn about Hartford revaluations is on the Assessor website. They have a piece about how the 2006 revaluation was implemented and a pamphlet answering common questions about the upcoming 2011 revaluation.

After the initial data mailer that we should be receiving soon, there won’t be much to do between now and November 2011 when we receive our new fair values. We’re always happy to answer questions, and when the time comes, help gather relevant data for an informal hearing.

The new rules, which went into effect at the beginning of 2009, still use the 5 year look-back period. They also retain the exclusion limits of $250,000 and $500,000. However, sellers now need to scale the exclusion by the percentage of time that the property served as their primary residence over the past 5 years. A quick example is the easiest way to illustrate the change. Suppose an owner lived in a property for 2 years, then rented it out for 3, and is now looking to sell. Because they lived there for 2 of the previous 5 years, they would be eligible for 40% of the credit. Under the previous code, they would have qualified for the whole thing.

Like all laws, this can get complicated quickly. And portions could be open to interpretation. So, investors and second home owners planning to take advantage of this gains tax exclusion need to consult with their people (accountants and/or attorneys) to make sure that they are on track to achieve their real estate goals.

For Your Further Reading Enjoyment:
The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (refer to Section 3092 near the end)
IRS Section 121 Code

The earth receives huge amounts of energy every year in the form of sunlight. Photovoltaic solar systems are able to capture some of that energy and convert it directly into electricity. Homeowners can deploy systems that connect to the power grid, so that during sunny times they deliver power to the utility companies, and during non-sunny times they draw power from the grid. Photovoltaic technology has advanced to the point where a homeowner is able to generate enough power (on an average basis over the year) to offset all of their electricity usage.

One of the negatives of alternative energy is the substantial up-front investment. If an individual were to install a photovoltaic system sufficient to generate 100% of their electricity needs, then the base price for the equipment and installation would be well into five figures. One large system that was used as an example in the presentation cost over $70,000. Which is more than most of us have laying around these days.

To encourage investment in systems like these, Connecticut has put a program in place to help homeowners overcome the initial cost. CT Solar Lease is a program that combines rebates from the Connecticut Clean Energy Fund and leases from CT Solar Leasing, LLC to install systems with no down payments for the homeowner. Instead homeowners commit to a 15 year lease with fixed payments. In theory the payments will initially be comparable to their monthly power bill and will stay constant as the price of electricity increases over time. After the 15 years the homeowner has the option to extend the lease for 5 years at a considerably lower rate, buy the system at its current market value, or pay the un-installation expenses.

When buying through the CT Solar Lease program, the homeowner that installed the $70,000+ system mentioned above did not pay anything for installation and set-up. The rebate from the state covered over half of the cost and the lease made up the difference. He has monthly payments of about $160 for 15 years and then projected monthly payments of about $35 per month if he chooses to extend the lease through year 20. He has effectively locked in his power costs for the life of the lease. Beyond that, he will have the opportunity to buy a power-generating asset for an undetermined one-time cost and then receive the electricity for free for the remainder of the system’s useful life (estimated to be 35 years). If electricity prices continue to increase on an annual basis, then he will save himself a considerable amount of money over time.

With the financial burden of solar substantially reduced, the next major challenge is identifying an appropriate site. Photovoltaic cells are ideally positioned facing south and never in the shade. However the reality is that there are very few perfect sites, so this is where the professionals from Alteris enter the picture. They have experience siting and installing photovoltaic systems and are willing to do initial site and financial analysis for free.

Some other interesting tidbits about solar:
1. Connecticut’s environment is not dramatically worse than Arizona’s for generating solar power – we have more cloudy days, but the systems are more efficient in our cooler climate.
2. CT state law prohibits solar improvements from increasing a property’s assessed value, and therefore taxes.
3. A 2007 report in the Appraisal Journal of the National Appraiser’s Association found that home values increase by $20 for every $1 in energy savings, which suggests that investments in solar systems would have a 95% payback based on current technologies and costs.
4. If you generate more power than you use in a year, then CL+P will cut you a check.
5. Photovoltaic systems connected to the grid must turn off (for safety reasons) if the grid goes down – they are not a backup power source for power outages.

If you are serious about investigating solar, send me an email and I would be happy to pass on the local expert’s contact information (didn’t have a chance to ask for his permission to post it).

I had some good conversations with the various buyers and I noticed an interesting trend emerging. Of the 23 groups of people that visited my open house, 8 were from West Hartford. Every one of them indicated that they are upset with the high taxes in West Hartford and are looking to relocate to the West End of Hartford because they can get more house for the money and enjoy lower taxes. The buyers were families with children in the West Hartford public schools and Hartford magnet schools, families with children in private schools, familes with children not yet old enough to be in school, young couples, and a retiree.

A few of the families mentioned that they’re rapidly outgrowing their current West Hartford homes but both the housing prices and subsequent taxes associated with a “move up” home made the monthly housing payments financially unaffordable to them. So they’re starting to explore Hartford because they realize they can get a lot more for their money. The average price per square foot in West Hartford last year was $175/square foot, versus $127/square foot in the West End of Hartford. Taxes can also be significantly different. For example, the $5,500 annual taxes on my 3,200 square foot West End home would run me anywhere from approximately $8,000 to $10,000 on a comparable home in West Hartford.

There always seems to be a lot of debate about budgets in West Hartford, perhaps this is some early evidence of people voting with their feet. Thoughts?