October Contracts: Fall Market Peak

The Hartford County single-family home market turned in another strong month in October. A total of 758 contracts came together during the month, which was nearly 18% higher than October of 2014.

2015-11-06 Hartford County Single Family Contracts in October 2015

On a year-to-date basis, there have been over 13% more deals through the first 10 months of this year versus last year. The chart above shows that the outperformance has increased since June.

The lower price points continue to show more activity than the upper price points. The lower price points also have the least inventory, meaning they are more favorable to sellers.

The general consensus from conversations with other agents is that the market is slow at the upper price points. The data shows that the upper price points are actually more active year-over-year, but that inventory numbers are higher. The issue is not that there are fewer buyers, it’s that there are more sellers competing against each other.

November is the month when the real estate markets turn the corner into winter, so the number of deals will trend downwards. This time of year is a pretty good time to be a buyer, and a great time to start thinking about 2016. Feel free to call or write with any real estate questions – we’re happy to help in any way we can.

2015-11-06 Hartford County Single Family Contracts in October 2015 by Town

September Contracts: A Busy Summer

It’s been a few months since we published an update on contract activity, and the local markets were rather active over that time.

Hartford County Single Family Contracts in September 2015

Hartford County finished September with 739 single-family contracts, an increase of about 17% over September of 2014. It was the fourth month in a row of strong outperformance. On a year-to-date basis the County is about 800 deals and 13% ahead of where it was at this point of last year.

Year-over-year outperformance is spread across most of the price bands, with only $1+ million homes showing a decrease in deal count in 2015. However the lower price points, where the vast majority of the County’s deal take place, are the most impressive.

The lower price points are also the most favorable to sellers, with the fewest available listings. Inventory levels rise with asking prices. There is only about 2.3 months of inventory for single-family homes with asking prices of less than $100,000. The metric jumps to 4.4 months for the $100,000s; 6.2 months for the $200,000s; 7.5 months for the $300,000s; and 8.3 months for the $400,000s. Above $500,000 inventory is consistently above 10 months, and it continues to rise with the price point.

2015 has not been equally good to all the towns in Hartford County. There are two towns in which the year-to-date contract totals are actually down from 2014. Many of the larger towns are showing single digit growth. At the other end of the spectrum, Granby has 54% more activity this year than last year. Its activity increase of +51 contracts puts it in direct competition for biggest jump in deals with much larger County towns. Go Granby!

Hartford County Single Family Contracts in September 2015 by Town

March Contracts: Solid Deal Count Growth

2015-04-09 Hartford County Single Family Contracts in March 2015

Hartford County finished the month of March with 726 single-family home contracts, an increase of 6.3% over March of 2014. There continues to be excitement and energy around the real estate markets. Buyers are out in force, and seem confident about bidding on homes.

On a year-to-date basis, the price bands of $100,000s and the $200,000s have shown strong outperformance over the first quarter of last year. There have been 6.8% more deals for homes with asking prices in the $100,000s, and an impressive 23.4% more deals for homes with asking prices in the $200,000s.

At 4.8 months of inventory, the number of homes available for sale is in line with what we have reported for the beginning of April in past years. Listings will continue to come onto the market over the coming months, as April and May are usually the months with the highest number of contracts signed.

Contract data continues to vary significantly within the County. Windsor Locks had a very strong first quarter, finishing with a 40% increase in the number of deals. It is also the town with the lowest inventory level by a large amount … it’s apparently a good time to be a seller in Windsor Locks.

2015-04-09 Hartford County Single Family Contracts in March 2015 by Town

December Contracts: Happy Holidays

Hartford County finished the year with 397 single-family deals coming together during the month of December. The total was slightly ahead of December 2012, and a sharp decline from November of this year.

2014-01-06 Hartford County Single Family Contracts in December 2013

For the full 12 months, the Hartford County market grew by a little over 7% in terms of signed single-family contracts. The result is well behind the 24% growth seen in 2012, yet still a positive step as the region’s housing market continues its recovery.

This is the time of year when the market is in transition. Many buyers and sellers will take the holiday season off from their search, reducing the overall deal count and pushing down the inventory numbers.

It is uncertain when they will begin to emerge for the spring market. Over the past few years we have not had particularly cold or snowy winters, resulting in real estate activity in January. This year we have experienced a legitimate winter, so we would expect that things won’t get too serious until we at least break the cold spell. Perhaps it could take even longer before homeowners are ready to list their properties and the buyer pool begins to fill out.

Hope everyone has a happy New Year … and we’ll be ready to get to work whenever you’re ready to talk real estate.

2014-01-06 Hartford County Single Family Contracts in December 2013 by Town

November Contracts: Slowing for the Winter

Single-family contracts fell to 514 in Hartford County for the month of November. The month was about 6% higher than the total from November of 2012, and the year-to-date count remains about 7% ahead of the 2012 pace.

2013-12-04 Hartford County Single Family Contracts in November 2013

Agents we know have commented that there were parts of November when the market seemed suspiciously quiet – like so quiet that they didn’t trust their email was working properly. Despite that, the month ended with a solid deal count, which seems like a good sign.

Barring a dramatic turn of events in December, it appears that the year will end with a modest increase in market activity over 2012. We continue to see deals come together this month, but don’t have a good sense of how active it will be. The weather and the distribution of the various holidays always seems to play a factor.

Next month we’ll take a deeper look into the 2013 full year data to see what trends emerged and what they suggest for 2014. We’ll also investigate pricing data, which we think should only be considered on an annual basis since the mix of homes sold within a particular month or quarter contains a meaningful element of randomness. Annual data also needs to be closely monitored for changes in sales mix, but with the larger number of data points the changes are more likely to mean something.

2013-12-04 Hartford County Single Family Contracts in November 2013 by Town