Greater Hartford Real Estate Blog

Halfway through the year, the real estate market is in good shape. Activity levels are in line with the previous two years, which were both strong years for the market.

Hartford County finished the month of June with 969 single-family contracts, which was about 3% fewer than the total from last June. On a year-to-date basis the first half of 2018 was about 1.6% behind the first half of 2017.

One of the important trends of the first half of the year was an increase in mortgage rates. We started 2018 with buyers getting mortgages with interest rates at about 4.0%. Rates jumped to just below 4.5% in the first quarter, and crept up a little more in the second quarter. We’re seeing rates in the mid-to-upper 4% range right now.

The increase in mortgage rates is relatively modest in the overall scheme of things, and rates are still at very low levels historically, but these types of changes do have an impact on buyers. Monthly interest payments tick upwards, reducing the monthly budget available for actually buying the house or covering the other costs that go along with home ownership. At the margin the change in rates will have a cooling effect on prices.

Despite the increasing rates, we fully expect the real estate market to continue to be active for the remainder of the year.

2018’s monthly deal count increased in May. The 1,089 total was slightly less than the May 2017 total, but a solid increase over the April 2018 count. On a year-to-date basis there have been 1.3% fewer Hartford County single-family home contracts in 2018 than there were through the end of May 2017.

May is traditionally the single busiest month of the year. It is also far enough into the year that the town-by-town results have enough data to be interesting. Most of the towns in the County are within 10% of their 2017 performance on a year-to-date basis. Rocky Hill, Avon, Granby, and Burlington all outperformed last year by more than 20%, while only East Granby, Marlborough, and Manchester lagged last year by more than 20%.

Taking a more detailed look at Manchester, it appears that their 21% underperformance can be directly attributed to a lack of inventory. The Manchester market is busiest in the $100,000s, where 148 homes went under contract through the end of May 2018. That’s about 30% fewer than the 213 that had gone under contract by the end of May 2017. There is currently only a 2 month supply of listings in that price band, making it a strong seller’s market.

Inventory levels continue to be low throughout the County. There were only 3.2 months of homes available as of the end of May, which is barely above the level that is considered a seller’s market. June should continue to be active before the pace of deals begins to slow down in the second half of the year.