Archive for the 'Think Big' Category
Housing and Young People
Yesterday was the first session in a five-part series on public housing policy. Housing: The Hub of Public Policy 2010 is presented by The Connecticut Housing Finance Authority, The Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development, and The Partnership for Strong Communities; it is hosted by The Lyceum. The pre-event briefing memo touched on many issues and gave examples of what is happening in other parts of the country – it’s an interesting read. We learned about the event through our involvement in HYPE, and stopped by to check it out.
One of the recurring themes of the discussion was Connecticut’s difficulty in retaining our young adults, which is reported regularly via both official statistics and anecdotal experiences. It is a source of concern because of the ratio of workers to retirees in the state – currently 4.5:1 and expected to fall to 2.6:1 by 2030. The baseline assumption for the group was that housing played a critical role in the flight of the youth; our graduates move to other states because they can’t find affordable housing in Connecticut.
We have lived in three different states as working adults, with each move motivated by a specific opportunity. We moved to Boston because of a job, to Charlottesville because of a school, and then to Hartford because of a job. Housing costs only entered the discussion during our most recent move, as we were interested in understanding the cost of living relative to the available salaries. Hartford was more affordable that both Boston and Vermont, the other destinations we considered. So housing was a consideration for us, but it was a secondary factor after the available opportunities, and only became a factor because we expected to be in the area for a long time building a career.
Three other points that were raised during the discussion:
1. Housing costs can influence employment opportunities since companies have an incentive to locate their facilities in low-cost areas.
2. Because Connecticut is so geographically small, and located between Boston and New York, our young adults are often still close to home even if they live in another state.
3. Perhaps many of our young adults will return to the state when they are ready for a more suburban lifestyle.
What’s your take? How important are housing costs to the young adults that you know? What motivates them (you) to choose Connecticut or to choose other parts of the country/world? If you know people who have left the area, what might have kept them here if it had been available?
Collaborating with the GHREB
We enjoy writing this blog. It’s an outlet to share our knowledge with a diverse reader base, exercise some creativity, and have a conversation with the Greater Hartford community about real estate.
Lots of different people read this blog; folks curious about real estate in general, those thinking about buying or selling a home, newspaper and TV reporters, other real estate agents, and an occassional friend or relative.
Most of the feedback we get about this blog is positive. We work hard to write interesting articles and take pictures that support our topics. We are in no way trained reporters, but still feel that our product quality is useful to the masses.
Recently I had a reporter from the New York Times contact me. That was an exciting event. She read one of my market statistic blog posts and made note of Newington consistently being a Seller’s market during a good portion of 2009. She wondered why this might be the case when other bordering towns were Neutral or Buyer’s markets. We had a discussion about the town of Newington and its housing market. I gave her the name of a top agent in Newington so that she could get another perspective. The result was this nice article published in the Times last weekend. The author was kind enough to quote me and mention my blog. I really appreciated that.
Now, not everyone that reads our blog is that great about giving credit where credit is due. I’ve had instances where reporters have clearly used my market analysis information and not attributed it to me. Additionally, people take my pictures and reuse them without asking permission or citing any type of source. Not cool. We always try to give credit where credit is due and we would just ask that others do the same.
On Monday we’ll be launching a new publication which we’re excited about. It’s an extension and enhancement of the market statistics information which our audience seems to find valuable. On a quarterly basis we’re going to look at the single family home and condo data for every town in Hartford County and the County overall, providing our thoughts and market commentary.
We really hope that you enjoy our blog and learn something new every now and then. If you’d like to talk with us about anything we’ve written about, or the market in general, please feel free to contact us. We’re always happy to speak with you and collaborate on your projects. If you see a picture that you’d like to use, please ask us and we’ll consider your request.
Real Estate Stories of the Past Couple Weeks
There have been a number of interesting articles about real estate in the financial press over the past couple weeks. Here’s a quick wrap-up of what you may have missed while you were off for the holidays…
Wall Street Journal, December 23rd: Data from the National Association of Realtors shows that Home Sales, Prices Brighten (subscription required). Though the current data is positive, the author expresses concern about “a continuing flood of foreclosures and the eventual withdrawal of government life support.” They note that the housing has been strongest in “middle-class homes with short commutes,” something that rings true in the Greater Hartford markets.
Wall Street Journal, December 24th: The next day, the headlines reversed to New-Home Sales Drop 11.3% as Impact of Stimulus Fades (Subscription Required). This time the data came from the Commerce Department, which noted that the measure was very volatile (it had risen 7.4% the previous month) and new home sales make up less than 15% of total home sales. And in our area, new home sales are far less than 15% of the total.
Wall Street Journal, December 24th: On the same page, we learn that Resession Alters Migration Pattern in US. Although this story isn’t directly about real estate, it is interesting to consider the implication of people moving around the country on local real estate markets. A large map shows the population changes by state for 2004-2005 and then for 2008-2009. Florida and Nevada showed the most dramatic shifts, from strongly growing to modestly decreasing populations. Connecticut appears to be consistent across the two time periods with both reflecting losses of between 0 and 50,000 people.
Wall Street Journal, December 29th: Everyone who loves a good house hunting story definitely needs to read this tale as A Picky Home Buyer Pursues an Epic Hunt for ‘the One’ in the San Francisco Bay Area. It took over two years and 298 properties for Lidia and Doug Pringle to find the right place to call home. Wow.
Calculated Risk, December 30th: During the past two declines in home values (early 1980s and early 1990s), prices did not bottom until the unemployment rate peaked.
The Big Picture, December 31st: Morgan Stanley released a research piece suggesting that the 10 Year Treasury could rise to 5.5% in 2010. What caught our eye was that they estimated that the higher Treasury rates could push rates for 30-year fixed mortgages up to between 7.5% and 8%. These rates are, of course, much higher than buyers are used to seeing. The commentary basically says that Morgan Stanley must be concerned about inflation increasing, and that the charts the commentators use to look at the market show strong increases in inflation expectations over the past year.
Wall Street Journal, December 31st: The Department of Housing and Urban Development have had Rules to Clarify Cost of Mortgages in the works for a while, tightening the requirements around Good Faith Estimates that lenders give to buyers when quoting mortgage rates. Their overall goal is to force lenders to report all of their fees and rates in a way that allows borrowers to more easily compare rates between lenders. It will be interesting to see how this transition goes as lenders and real estate attorneys adjust to new regulations.
Wall Street Journal Blogs, January 1st: The Five Key Housing Issues to Watch in 2010 are 1. mortgage rates; 2. the future of Fannie, Freddie, and the FHA; 3. loan modifications; 4. more loan resets; and 5. the tax credit.
New York Times, January 1st: Some feel that the Federal Government’s effort to modify loans is Adding to Housing Woes. They argue that allowing homeowners to remain in their homes by modifying their mortgage has been counterproductive. Homeowners have their hopes falsely raised and waste money trying to keep a home they simply cannot afford before finally defaulting on the modified mortgage.
So that’s the word on The Street as the real estate markets move into 2010. The headlines seem to have a negative bias, highlighting concerning data, unsuccessful recovery programs, and the unfortunate reality of many Americans struggling. We’ll have to see how it all plays out here in Greater Hartford. And as always we’ll hope for the best and plan for the worst.